Although not officially finalized, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is expected to debut with the 2024 season. Each week for the rest of the season, The Athletic will test drive the proposed format using the CFP committee’s latest Top 25 rankings.
Here’s how the bracket would be seeded and the site locations determined using the committee’s Nov. 22 rankings and a 2024-25 calendar. Note: The Orange and Cotton Bowls were previously scheduled to host the 2024-25 semifinals and Atlanta was selected as the national championship game.
Top four seeds (first-round byes):
1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
3. TCU (Big 12 champion)
4. USC (Pac-12 champion)
Under the CFP board’s approved model, the top four seeds will be reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. For our purposes, we’re designating each conference’s top-ranked team as its champion. That means no. 1 Georgia (SEC), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 4 TCU (Big 12) and No. 6 USC (Pac-12) would get a bye into the quarterfinals.
Nos. 5-12 seeds:
5. Michigan (at large)
6. LSU (at large)
7. Alabama (at large)
8. Clemson (ACC champion)
9. Oregon (at large)
10. Tennessee (at large)
11. Penn State (at large)
12. Tulane (AAC champion)
Under the same model, the six highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths along with the six highest-ranked at-large teams. Were the season to end today, the fifth- and sixth-highest-ranked conference champions would be No. 8 Clemson (ACC) and No. 19 Tulane (AAC).
Joining them in the field would be the six highest-ranked remaining teams: No. 3 Michigan, No. 5 LSU, No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Oregon, No. 10 Tennessee and No. 11 Penn State.
The CFP schedule
All times Eastern.
Friday, Dec. 13
- No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Clemson, 7:30 p.m
Saturday, Dec. 14
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan, noon
- No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 LSU, 4 p.m
- No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Alabama, 8 p.m
The four first-round games will be played on the campuses of the No. 5-8 seeds over the third weekend in December. Which games get placed in which slots would likely be determined by ESPN, with Tennessee-Alabama as the obvious Saturday prime-time selection.
Tuesday, Dec. 31
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 TCU vs. LSU-Penn State winner, 7:30 p.m
Wednesday, Jan 1
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 USC vs. Michigan-Tulane winner, 1 p.m
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. Alabama-Tennessee winner, 5 p.m
- Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. Clemson-Oregon winner, 8:45 p.m
It is expected that the current New Year’s Six bowls will rotate hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals, with a goal of playing most quarterfinals on New Year’s Day. And the CFP board said in its announcement the top four seeds will be assigned “in consideration of current contract bowl relationships.”
Using those parameters, No. 1 Georgia would go to the SEC’s contract bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Ohio State to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champion. The Peach and Fiesta bowls will not have conference partners, but No. 3 TCU would likely get preference over No. 4 USC, and Atlanta is closer. That conveniently allows the Trojans to stay west.
Thursday, Jan. 9
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 Alabama/No. 10 Tennessee vs. No. 3 TCU/No. 6 LSU/No. 11 Penn State, 7:30 p.m
Friday, Jan. 10
- Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia/No. 8 Clemson/No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 4 USC/No. 5 Michigan/No. 12 Tulane, 7:30 p.m
The commissioners have not officially determined the dates of the semifinals, but they would have to be at least a week later than the quarterfinals, and the CFP would avoid scheduling them opposite the NFL’s Wild Card weekend (Jan. 11-13). That likely means placing one Thursday night and the other Friday night.
In the CFP board’s announcement, it said “the higher seeds would receive preferential placement in the Playoff semifinal games.” That would depend on which teams win their quarterfinals, but if No. 1 Georgia advanced, Miami is closer than Arlington.
Monday, Jan. 20
- National championship game in Atlanta, 7:30 pm
The title game is expected to remain Monday night, as the NFL’s Divisional Round has a hold on potential weekend dates. The CFP had already selected Atlanta as its site for the 2025 national championship game, and it is expected to remain so even though the game will now likely be played two weeks later than planned.
And here’s how we predict the tournament would unfold in the quarterfinals and beyond:
- No. 9 Oregon beats No. 8 Clemson
- No. 5 Michigan beats No. 12 Tulane
- No. 6 LSU beats No. 11 Penn State
- No. 7 Alabama beats No. 10 Tennessee
- No. 1 Georgia beats No. 9 Oregon
- No. 5 Michigan beats No. 4 U.S.C
- No. 6 LSU beats No. 3 TCU
- No. 7 Alabama beats No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 1 Georgia beats No. 5 Michigan
- No. 7 Alabama beats No. 6 LSU
- No. 1 Georgia beats No. 7 Alabama
Check out last week’s projection here.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Tom Pennington, Jeff Moreland, G Fiume / Getty Images)