Will Bitcoin Suffer a Long-Term Bear Market?

Crypto markets exhibited a sluggish pattern last week, with some dire predictions for the medium-term future being made by analysts. Investors are concerned about the increase in interest rates and general negative sentiments about the economy. Bitcoin is also suffering and does not appear to be poised for a bullish breakout. The flagship cryptocurrency sees a ‘death cross’, as chart patterns indicate that a short-term moving average has dropped below a long-term moving average. As of this writing, Bitcoin is in the green zone, hovering around $20,000.

Bitcoin’s 20-Week MA Goes Below 200-Week MA

For the first time in the history of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s 20-week moving average dipped below the 200-week moving average. This signifies a death cross, which occurs when the slower-moving average crosses above the faster-moving average, usually indicating a bearish market.

In case you’re not familiar, a moving average is just a technical indicator that smoothes out price data by creating a constantly updated average price. They often form the basis for other technical indicators, like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD).

Bitcoin does not often even get close to its 200-week moving average, and the fact that the price is even there is a rare event. Usually, when this level was reached, it was followed by a period of strong price increases.

This time could be different, however. Not only has Bitcoin failed to hold the level and closed below it for more than ten weekly candles, and it also failed to break past it last month.


Bitcoin (BTC) Price: TradingView.

Could Bitcoin No Longer Be a Hedge Against Inflation?

There has been some speculation on the whole incident, with analysts pointing to the fact that the crypto market is now much more closely related to the S&P 500. This is a point that has become a much stronger part of the narrative as the crypto market has gone more mainstream and behaving like a stock market.

Bitcoin and other assets used to be seen as something that was separate from other asset classes and, as such, were thought of as good assets to help hedging against inflation. That no longer appears to be the case.

It’s uncertain whether this pattern will hold and Bitcoin will consolidate around its current levels. The crypto market is certainly experiencing an unusually unpredictable time, even by its standards. Many were expecting the latter half of 2022 to be strong, but macroeconomic conditions have resulted in an uncertain immediate future.

The Bottom Line

The upcoming months will be important for Bitcoin as it tests current levels and proves whether it can break out of its current rut. The technical indicators may show that it is experiencing an uncertain period, but the asset is breaking into the mainstream, so some of its past patterns may not hold as true as before.

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